Bedey

 

     
THE FEASIBILITY STUDY OF PADMA BRIDGE

Study team : Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Start : May 2003, END : March 2005

     
Timing of Submission Main Contents

Inception Report
June 2003
-Scope, methodology and implementation plan of the Study

Progress Report 1
September 2003
Selection of the bridge location alternatives, Traffic demand projection

Interim Report
March 2004
-Results of Preliminary Engineering  Studies
- Results of IEE and SIA
- Decision of  the Bridge Location

Progress Report 2
September  2004
-Design criteria and design  standards
-Comparative analysis, preliminary  design and construction plan

Draft Final Report
January  2005
-All Study results

Final Report
March 2005
- All study results, reflecting   comments by the Bangladeshi   Government

Findings of Progress report - 1
     
Four alternative bridge sites were identified as alternative locations in the following areas:
     
 
Site-1 : Paturia-Goalundo
Site-2 : Dohar-Charbhadrasan
Site-3 : Mawa-Janjira
Site-4 : Chandpur-Bhedarganj
     
-Four alternative locations were examined from the view points of existing transport of the project area, traffic demand forecast, preliminary river study and technical consideration in highway planning, preliminary bridge planning, environmental & social consideration.
     
-JICA study team considers site-1 and site-3 to be most advantageous for a new fixed crossing and recommends these sites for further study until Interim report.
     
 
Findings of the Interim report Basic Policy of the Feasible Study:
 
 
Main Function of Padma Bridge

Location of Padma Bridge
 
Socio-Economic Impacts of Padma Bridge
 
Associated Road Development Project
 
Associated Road Development Project
 
Impact of Macro Balance of the Country
 
Private Sector Participation

Study Items completed by Progress Report (1)

 
Collection & Review of Existing Data, Information and Reports related to the Study
 
Identification of Conceivable Bridge Crossing Sites
 
Traffic Survey & Traffic Demand Forecast
 
Preliminary River Study
 
Preliminary Technical Consideration of Highway & Bridge Planning
 
Preliminary Environment & Social Condition
 
Screening of Alternatives
     
 
     
 

   
 

The Study Items completed by Interim Report


         
      Engineering Survey  
   

Preliminary River Facility Design  
   

Preparatory Preliminary Study for Bridge & Highway  
      IEE  
   

SIA & Resettlement Issue  
   

Economic Effect & Preliminary Feasibility  
         
  Findings from Geotechnical Investigation  
         
    Difference of Subsoil Conditions between 2 Sites  
      N-values of SPT at Mawa-Janjira site are higher than those at Paturia-Goalundo site.  
         
    Horizontal Ground Reaction  
     
As the coefficients of horizontal ground reaction in the bored holes showed relatively smaller values, such characteristics would have to be considered in the preliminary design of foundations.
 
         
    Liquefaction  
     
Paturia-Goalundo site has high potential risks of liquefaction when sever earthquake takes place. On the other hand, Mawa - Janjira site has lesser potential risks of the same.
 
         

Finding (1 )

 
 

  N -values of SPT at Mawa-Janjira site are higher than those at Paturia-Goalundo. Main reason of this result might come from the subsoil composition at Paturia - Goalund that consists of relatively singular particle size distribution of fine sand.  
         
Finding (2)  
      Below maximum scour levels El -40m PWD, N-values of SPT at Mawa-Janjira are higher than those at Paturia-Goalundo.  
         

Finding (3)

 
   

From the pressure - meter tests in situ bored holes, the following relation was obtained:  
   

  Em=4.52N      
      Where, N:N-value of SPT  
        Em: Coefficient of horizontal ground reaction  
      Ref.: Em+7N.....Design specification of Highway Bridges adopted by JRA.  
              Em=7n  
         
Finding (4)  
      As a result of liquefaction analysis, there is no potential risk of liquefaction at Mawa-Janjira site.  
      On the other hand , there is some protential risks of liquefaction at Paturia-Goalundo site in some depts either before or after scour.  
 
       
   
 
         
  Preparatory Study for Preliminary Design on Bridge  
         
    Bridge Length, which was decided by the river study  
      Paturia-Goalundo= 6.5 km
Mawa-Janjira =6.2 km
 
    Applicable Bridge Types over 100m Span Length  
      Concrete Bridge: PC Continuous Box, Extradosed, Cable-stayed  
      Steel Bridge: Steel Continuous Box, Cable-stayed  
    Foundation Types  
      Steel Tubular Driven Piles, Cast-in-situ RC Piles, RC Caissons  
    Cost-Span Relation    
      Minimum cost would be at approx. 200m span length.  
    Favorable Bridge Types and Span Length  
     
PC extradosed girder bridge or PC cable-stayed girder bridge would be the most favorable bridge type from the view points of construction cost, maintenance cost, etc. Favorable span lengths will be further examined in a rage of 150m to 250m.
 
           
           
Initial Environmental Examinations (IEE)  
         
      Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) was conducted for the two preferred sites to identify the significant environmental impacts  
      A tailor made project specific 6 step template was developed exclusively for this project and applied for two sites  
      For the two sites, most of the impacts are found to be similar  
     
There is no significant advantage of one site over other
 
   
         
       
SIA and Resettlement Issues  
         
   
SIA was conducted for two alternative sites to ascertain the likely impacts of :
 
   
1.
Land acquisition  
   
2.
Local response to the project  
   
3.

Resettlement needs of the potentially affected persons

 
 

     
 

     

Survey Results

 
 

     
     
Estimated amount of land to be acquired is almost same (about 1,250 ha ) in both cases
 
      The number of affected households / structure varies due to differences in population density  
      Current estimate suggests:-  
      Mawa - Janjira 70,000 to 80,000  
      Paturia - Goalundo 40,000 to 45,000  
      Estimated LA and resettlement cost for M-J site is $39 million, and G-P is $24 million
 
      The Study Team found strong support to the project at both locations  
         
         
Traffic Study and Economic Analysis (Main Work Items)  
         
   
1)
Traffic Surveys (Traffic counts, OD Survey)  
   
2)
Establishment of Future Socioeconomic Framework (Population, GDP, GRDP)
 
   
3)
Traffic Demand Forecast (Target year 2025)  
   
4)
Confirmation of Economic Feasibility  
   
5)
Economic Impacts of the Padma Bridge  
     
1)
Improvement of Accessibility
     
2)
Regional Economic Development  
     
3)
Formation of International Road Network
 
         
         
Summary of Comparisons of Two Sites from traffic and Economic Point of View
         
Evaluation Criteria
Paturia-Goalundo
Mawa-Janjira
Traffic Demand (2025)
19,850 vehicles/day
41,550 vehicles/day
Economic Feasibility
EIRR=9.6%
EIRR=16.9%
Financial Project Cost (Million US$)
1,260
1,074
Improvement of
Accessibility
(Travel time)
Dhaka - Mongla
Dhaka - Benapole

(Beneficiary Population)
Within 3 hours from Dhaka
Within 4 hours from Dhaka

4.5 hours
4.6 hours

2,791,000 (9%)
12,738,000 (42%)
3.6 hours
3.6 hours

10,417,000 (35%)
22,247,000 (74%)
Density of Feeder Roads
No big difference
Formation of International Road Network
 
Asian Highway A-1. Short distance to Benapole Land Port and Mongla Sea Port
Regional Economic Development
GDP of Southwest region will increase by 18% (1.2% /year) GDP of Southwest region will increase by 35% (2.3% /year)
Growth centers around the bridge sites
No big difference
Indicative Cost
 
         
Paturia - Goalundo
Mawa - Janjira
US$ 1,260 million
US$ 1,074 million
Evaluation of P-G & M-J sites
         
Evaluation Criteria
Paturia - Goalundo
Mawa - Janjira
Economic
Feasibility
EIRR
9.6%
16.9%
B/C Ratio
0.71
1.81
NPV (Mil.Taka)
-9,857
23,140
Regional
Development
Increase of GRDP of Southwest Region
18% up
(1.2% per year)
35% up
(2.3% per year)
Environmental
Impact
Result of IEE
No big difference
Social impact and Resettlement Issues Households requiring relocation
1,842
2,635
Community structures affected
18
60
Total population affected (both direct and indirect)
40,000-45,000
70,000-80,000
Preliminary RAP cost
23.7 mil. US$
38.79 mil. US$
         
   
 
 

     
         
   
RIVER TRAINING WORKS (RTW)
 
   
Types of RTW: Guide Bund works (GBW),abutment protection works (APW) and bank protection works (BPW).
 
   
GBW: To guide river flow to the bridge opening and to protect bridge abutment and approach road from erosion.
 
   
APW: To protect bridge abutment from erosion.
 
   
BPW: To ensure the functions of the GBW and APW by maintaining present flow conditions around the bridge sites.
 
         
   
 
   
ALTERNATIVES SCHEMES
 
         
   
For RTW on Left Bank: Two alternative measures
(1) GBW facing to Padma river, or
(2) APW behind the less erodible riverbank (1km apart considering possible erosion during 100 years in future)
 
   
For RTW on Right Bank: GBW facing to Padma River were proposed, since no reliable stable bank for abutment could not be found on the right bank according to the erodibility study.
 
   
Alternative Schemes: In combination with the left and right RTW mentioned above, two alternative schemes with same functions were established each for PG-site and MJ-site.
 
   
BPW: The BPW were also planned for each site considering respective site conditions.
 
         
         
   
SELECTION OF OPTIMUM SITE
 
         
   
RTW in combination of GBW(R), APW(L) and BPW are proposed for both PG- and MJ- sites.
 
   
Construction Cost: According to the preliminary cost estimate, MJ-site requires less construction cost than PJ-site.
 
   
0ptimum Site: The optimum site will be finally proposed afterward considering economic, social and environmental aspects as well as the engineering aspect.
 
         
         
   
Steps of Environmental Study
 
         
   
Initial Environmental Assessment for Padma River eco-system particularly for four alternative sites
 
   
Initial Environmental Examination (IEE) for two preferred sites (reporting in Interim Report)
 
   
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the selected site
 
   
Environmental Management Plan (EMP)
 
         
       
   
Objectives of IEE
 
         
    To identify the significant environmental impacts  
    Prepare Scope of EIA  
    Prepare a preliminary EMP with cost estimates  
         
         
   
Features of the IEE Study
 
         
   
Impact area is considered as 10,000 km2
 
   
ROW is considered as 60m and Bridge landing site requirement is assumed as 6 km2
 
   
Secondary data was collected on related parameters
 
   
Primary data was collected by questionnaire survey, reconnaissance, and discussion with local people.
 
         
         
   
Assessment Procedure
 
         
     
A tailor project specific 6 step template was developed and applied
 
    Environmental parameters are identified with rational  
    Numerical weightage values are decided with justification  
    Project specific mitigation guidelines are prepared  
    Impact analysis template is used  
    An impact rating template is employed (screening)  
    A Leopold graded impact matrix is applied  
         
         
   
Impact Assessment
 
         
   
40 parameters used for screening
 
      There are 8 positive impacts  
      No impacts for 8 parameters  
      There are 24 negative impacts (befort mitigation)  
      There are 14 negative impacts after mitigation (however, impact will be reduced much)  
         
         
   
Impact Comparison
 
         
      For two sites, most of the impacts are similar  
         
      More erosion/siltation at Paturia site  
      More water bodies loss at Paturia site  
      More fisheries loss at Paturia site  
      More homestead loss at Mawa site  
      More Income loss at Mawa site  
      More split of communities at Mawa site  
      There is no significant advantage of one site over other  
         
       
     
Scoping of EIA
 
     
(as Identified in IEE)
 
         
      Erosion and siltation (including regional hydrology and drainage congestion)  
      Agricultural / vegetation loss (including plant cutting)  
      Fisheries (including water bodies)  
      Wildlife  
      Land acquisition (including split of communities)  
      Resettlement (including Income loss)  
      Navigation  
      Road accident  
      Air, noise and vibration pollution  
         
         
     
Preliminary EMP
 
         
      A rough cost estimates show that the EMP requirement will be between 2 and 3 million US$ (the EMP cost for the Jamuna Bridge was about 3 million US$)  
     
However the cost requirement variation between the two sites is insignificant
 
         
         
     
SIA & Resettlement Issues
 
         
         
     
Objectives of the SIA
 
         
      SIA was conducted for two alternative sites -
(I) Mawa / janjira and (II) Paturia / Goalundo
 
      Planned and carried out to ascertain the likely impacts of  
        -Land acquisition
-Local response to the project
-Resettlement needs of the potential APs
 
         
      Primary objectives were to  
        -Develop comparative SIA of the two alternatives
-Preliminary Cost estimates
- Develop social/ resettlement criteria for site selection
 
      SIA was not designed for a full scale resettlement study  
         
         
     
SIA Methodology
 
         
    Conducted over two months (Nov / Dec 2003)  
    Similar ecological and socioeconomic features  
    Methodology adopted include  
   
-
-
Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PRA)
Focus Group Discussion (FGD)
 
   
-
Meetings with local govt. officials/community leaders  
   
-
Sample survey using structured questionnaire  
    200 heads of households were interviewed  
         
       
     
SIA – Survey Results
 
         
    Impacts of Land Acquisition  
    Estimated amount of LA is same in both sites  
      Mawa / janjira   1272 ha  
      Paturia / Daulatdia   1239 ha  
      impact on households/ population varies  
      - M/J 2,635 hhs (13,204 APs)  
      - P/G 1,842 hhs (8,732 APs)  
      These numbers limited to affected hhs requiring relocation  
      Those affected by loss of land are not Included  
      Jamuna experience - three times higher than those requiring relocation  
         
   
 
         
         
     
SIA – Survey Results
 
         
      Loss of residential /commercial structure
Mawa /Janjira - 2635 units
Paturia / Goalundo - 1842 units
 
      Close to 80% of the units are made of  
      straw / bamboo, Cl sheet/tile roof - can easily be dismantled and moved  
      Community structures /facilities will also be affected - (I) M/J - 60, and (ii) P/G - 18  
         
       
     
SIA – Observations
 
         
      Total population affected (directly and indirectly) may run into:  
        Mawa - 70,000-80,000
Paturia - 40,000-45,000
 
      Impacts surely will be greater than currently understood  
      More accurate assessment will be possible only after the site is selected and preliminary design available  
         
         
     
Awareness and Response to the Project
 
         
      Local people are fairly aware of the impacts of LA & Resettlement Impacts  
      Also Informed about donor policies due to the Jamuna and Southwest Road Projects  
      Association and lobby groups have been established at both crossings for selection of their favored sites  
      Strong support to the project  
        - Improved transportation
- Business and new income opportunities
- Control of riverbank erosion
- Opportunities for regional industrial development
 
         
         
     
Resettlement and Preferred Options
 
         
      Survey included questions with regard to choices and preferred options  
        (i) Mawa / Janjira - 75% of those Interviewed prefer
    relocation on their own (self -relocation)
(ii) Paturia / Goalundo - 96% indicated their preferences for self-relocation
     Over all, there will be limited demand for resettlement site development
         
      Cost estimate - too early for an accurate cost estimate: M-j $39 million; P-G $24 million  
         
         
     
Review and analysis of the Findings
 
         
      SIA data should be treated as indicative of the potential impacts  
      The data is generally in line with the pre-feasibility study  
      A more extensive survey to be carried out for the selected site  
      The detailed information would be crucial for preparing the RAP  
         
         
     
Criteria for Final Site Selection
 
         
      Preliminary results shows greater impacts In Mawa-Janjira over
Paturia site
 
      Site selection should be more on technical - engineering grounds-future safety of the bridge infrastructure  
      Major Impacts of the project - Irrespective of sites  
      Selection of Final site Is critical to set the next agenda preparation of RAP  
      Task would be to minimize Impact, develop Improved policy for mitigation of adverse Impacts, management and capacity building for resettlement management  
      Experience of the Jamuna and other donor-funded projects will be used In the planning and Implementation of RAP for Padma  
         
       
     
Traffic Demand Forecast of
the Padma Bridge
 
         
     
Traffic Volumes across Padma River
(both ways 2003: From Traffic Survey)
 
         
   
  Paturia-Goalundo Mawa-Charjanjat Cross-Padma
Total
Light Vehicle 572 128
700
Bus 687 227
914
Truck 1,217 78
1,295
Total 2,476 433
2,909
Launch Passenger 15,559 9,126
24,685
     
Present Traffic Movement Pattern
 
         
    At present, traffic at Mawa is lower than Paturia due to the following reasons:
      1) Road condition of NH 8 is now very poor.  
      2) A narrow approach road to the Mawa ghat.  
      3) Quality of ferry services at Mawa is lower than Paturia in general.  
      4) No sufficient parking space for trucks.  
      5) Two hour river crossing time at Mawa is significantly longer than 35 minutes of Paturia.  
         
     
Future Traffic Movement Pattern
 
         
      Future traffic movement pattern will be drastically changed if the Padma Bridge is constructed at Mawa with following reasons:  
        1) Improvement of NH 8 (Dhaka - Khulna Road Project by ADB) will be completed by the end of 2004.  
        2) Direct road link from Dhaka for the largest traffic demands to Khulna and Jcssore.  
        3) Elimination of two hour crossing time.  
         
     
Quantification of Benefits
 
      1) Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) Savings  
      2) Travel Time Cost (TTC) Savings  
      3) Freight Value Deterioration Savings  
      4) Ferry Operation Cost Savings  
      5) Traffic Accident Savings  
      6) Air Pollution (C02,NOx) Reduction  
      7) Benefits from Utility Facilities  
      8) Land Enhancement Benefits  
         
     
Preliminary Economic Evaluation
 
      - Evaluation period : 30 years  
      - Opportunity Cost of Capital : 12 %  
      Tentative results: 1) EIRR: Paturia = 9.6%  
          Mawa = 16.9%  
         
     
Relationship Between GRDP and Travel Time to / from Dhaka
 
         
     
[Model]
 
     
Ln (G)=3.0453-0.5482 Ln (T)+Q.4926 Ln (F)
 
      where: (R=0.902)
G=Gross Regional Domestic Product/kM2
T=Time to Dhaka from districts in Southwest region (hours)
F=Density of feeder roads (km/kM2)
 
         
     
Estimated Impact on Economic Growth
in
Southwest Region (Growth of GRDP)
 
         
     
  Paturia Mawa
SW region 18% up
(1.2%/year)
35% up
(2.3%/year)
Bangladesh 4% up 7% up
 
         

Conclusion

 

     
   
From the result of the engineering studies, the economic feasibility including costs for social and resettlement issues and future effect on GRDP growth in Southwest Region, the best bridge site is concluded at Maws - Janjira .
 
         
     
Findings of Progress report - 2
 
     
 
     
This report mainly deals with
 
         
      -Natural condition survey such as topographic survey, geotechnical investigation, river
Morphology & mathematical modeling
 
      -Preliminary design of Padma Bridge, approach roads, toll plaza, service area, minor Bridges, underpass, riverbank protection works public utilities etc.  
      -Operation & Maintenance plan of Padma Bridge  
      -Construction plan & procedure of preliminary cost estimate  
      -Environmental study & social impact & resettlement study  
         
     
Design Criteria & standards
 
         
      The preliminary design in the study would be conducted on the basis of Asian Highway (AH) standards and Roads & Highways Department (RHD) standards. RHD standards are similar to AASHTO standards. Standards adopted by Japan Road Association (JRA), BSI and Indian Road Congress (IRC) would be used as supplementary ones.  
         
     
Parameters related to River Engineering
 
         
     
Water levels:    
Design High Water Level( 100 year return period) : DHWL=+7.35m PWD
Standard High Water Level : SHWL=+5.81m PWD
Mean Water Level : MWL=+3.02m PWD
Standard Low Water Level : SLWL=+1.43m PWD
     
Water Discharge and velocity:    
Design Discharge( 100 year return period) : Qd=134,400m3/sec
Design Water velocity( 100 year return period) : Vd=4.6m/sec
     
Scour Levels:    
Adjacent to Riverbank ( 100 year return period)
300m from riverbank
: Zs=-37.56m PWD
In middle of river( 100 year return period) : Zs=-23.63m PWD
         
     
Reasons for review on bridge types, span-cost relation of Interim
 
         
   
-
Bridge width was changed from 17.2m in the interim report to 21.5m in this report
 
   
-
In the interim report foundation stability was examined based on the ship collision force 23.3 MN, which is slightly refined 23.7 MN in this report.
 
   
-
In the interim report current market prices in Japan were used for estimating the indicative cost of steel girder bridge (US$5,000/ton including materials, fabrication, transport, erection). It would have to be re-estimating taking into consideration the possible case of internationally prevailing market prices (US$3,800/ton including materials, fabrication, transport, erection).
 
       
     
Girder Depths and Bridge lengths    
         
Bridge Type Girder Depth at mid span Aprox. Bridge length  
PC Box Girder(Span 160m) 4.8m 5,680m  
PC Extradosed(Span 180m) 3.3m 5,580m  
PC Cable Stayed(Span 200m) 1.8 5,480m    
         
         
Indicative cost by Bridge type without Railway      
         
Bridge Type Unit cost/m Bridge length Indicative cost
PC Box Girder(Span 160m) US$99,010 5,680m 562 million US$  
PC Extradoses(Span 180m) US$91,620 5,580m 511 million US$  
PC Cable Stayed(Span 200m) US$109,640 5,480m 601 million US$  
         
Reduced river widths by bridge type      
         
Bridge Type Number of Piers in the river Pier width per each Reduced river width % Reduced river width
PC Box Girder(Span 160m) 34 15.0m 510m 9.6%
PC Extradoses(Span 180m) 31 15.0m 465m 8.8%
PC Cable Stayed(Span 200m) 28 16.20m 454m 8.6%
         
Present river width in 2004=approx. 5,300m    
         
Total Bridge length        
Padma main bridge : 5,400m      
Left(North) bank Viaduct : 60m      
Right(South) bank Viaduct : 120m      
Total tength : 5,580m      
         
 
      Specific bridge type and alternatives for preliminary design  
         
     
PC extradosed girder Type Bridge has been selected for the main bridge structure of the Padma Bridge from the view points of less construction cost, aesthetics and river aspect. In addition Bangladesh side requested the study team to include alternative options that has cable stayed girder at the center portion of approximately 800m in length. As a result the following five alternatives will be examined in the preliminary design of the study:
 
     
     
Alternative-1(Base case)
:
PC extradosed girder bridge without railway provision
Alternative-2
:
PC extradosed girder bridge with cable stayed girder at bridge center portion without railway provision
Alternative-3
:
PC extradosed girder bridge with railway provision
Alternative-4
:
PC extradosed girder bridge with cable stayed girder at bridge center portion with railway provision
Alternative-5
:
PC extradosed girder bridge with minimum investment case
 
         
         
     
Approach & service Roads
 
         
      -12,163 m long approach roads on the both river banks (213 m at left & 11,950 m at right banks)  
      - 6 m width service road on both sides along the approach road & 2m lower than that of the approach road  
      -No of minor bridges on approach roads-6nos (total length=1000m)  
      -No of culverts (for underpasses for crossing RHD/LGED road) on approach roads-13nos  
       

:: Added 16092005 @ 0208 GMT